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Researchers interested in counterfactual thinking have often found that upward counterfactual thoughts lead to increased motivation to improve in the future, although at the cost of increased negative affect. The present studies suggest that because upward counterfactual thoughts indicate reasons for a poor performance, they can also serve as excuses. In this case, upward counterfactual thoughts should result in more positive self-esteem and reduced future motivation. Five studies demonstrated these effects in the context of self-handicapping. First, upward counterfactual thinking was increased in the presence of a self-handicap. Second, upward counterfactual thoughts indicating the presence of a self-handicap protected self-esteem following failure. Finally, upward counterfactual thoughts that protect self-esteem reduced preparation for a subsequent performance as well as performance itself. These findings suggest that the consequences of upward counterfactuals for affect and motivation are moderated by the goals of the individual as well as the content of the thoughts.
upward counterfactual thoughts indicating that a self-handicap prevented a better outcome result in more positive self-esteem following failure
convergent self-esteem experiments support the effect, but the central interpretation also invokes untested goal moderation
Replication outlook: uncertain
The presence of a self-handicap increases the availability of upward counterfactual thoughts
a randomized practice manipulation strongly replicates the classroom association despite moderate initial coding reliability
These same thoughts reduce motivation to adequately prepare for and do well on an upcoming performance
behavioral outcomes across Studies 3–5 converge despite small samples and some nonsignificant control contrasts
the consequences of upward counterfactuals for affect and motivation are moderated by the goals of the individual as well as the content of the thoughts
individual goals were neither measured nor manipulated in the five studies
The current studies suggest that self-handicapping can impair long-term achievement by undermining subsequent motivation to improve
the studies measure only proximal laboratory preparation and performance rather than long-term achievement
Derived from the full evaluation — not a separate score.
Strengths
The paper combines a naturalistic classroom study with four randomized laboratory studies using spontaneous and manipulated counterfactuals. This progression supports the core mechanism across different designs.
↳ Studies 1–5, pp. 276–287
Studies 3–5 measure practice behavior, distracting-noise selection, attempted items, and correct performance, providing behavioral evidence for reduced preparation and performance.
↳ Study 3 Results, pp. 283–284; Study 4 Results, pp. 285–286; Study 5 Results, p. 287
Study 3 addresses causal order and the future-opportunity explanation, while Study 5 contrasts reduced motivation with renewed self-handicapping. The General Discussion integrates these tests with attribution and reflection-evaluation accounts.
↳ Study 3 introduction, pp. 282–283; Study 5, pp. 286–287; General Discussion, pp. 287–290
Limitations
The Abstract and General Discussion conclude that individual goals moderate affective and motivational effects, but the studies manipulate handicap context and counterfactual content rather than measuring or randomizing goals.
↳ Abstract; General Discussion, pp. 287–288
Studies 4 and 5 analyze only 34 and 28 participants, while Studies 3 and 4 exclude roughly 10–15% of enrolled participants for suspicion or equipment failure without reported sensitivity analyses.
↳ Study 3 Participants and Design, p. 283; Study 4 Participants and Design, p. 285; Study 5 Participants and Design, p. 287
The discussion links the mechanism to long-term achievement, although the experimental outcomes concern immediate practice, noise selection, and performance during the same laboratory session.
↳ Consequences of Self-Handicapping and Counterfactual Thinking for Performance, pp. 289–290
The strongest evidence comes from the progression from Study 1’s classroom associations to randomized manipulations in Studies 2–5 and behavioral outcomes in the final three studies. Study 3 explicitly addresses causal order and a future-opportunity alternative, while Study 5 tests whether renewed self-handicapping rather than reduced motivation explains the behavioral pattern. Small final samples, suspicion-based exclusions, and moderate Study 1 coding agreement temper the otherwise competent execution. The largest scoring constraint is the Abstract and General Discussion’s claim of moderation by individual goals, because the reported studies manipulate contexts and thought content rather than goals themselves.
Nabu’s assessment, alongside the field’s view.
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Sound3.4
The paper meaningfully integrates counterfactual thinking and self-handicapping through five convergent studies. Its contribution is constrained by the central conclusion that effects are moderated by individual goals, which were neither measured nor manipulated.
“the consequences of upward counterfactuals for affect and motivation are moderated by the goals of the individual”
The program combines a field study with randomized experiments, manipulation checks, and behavioral outcomes. Suspicion-based exclusions in Studies 3–4, small later samples, and an unblinded subjective self-esteem endpoint reduce methodological certainty.
“Seven participants were excluded for reporting suspicion”
The five studies are organized as a cumulative sequence in which later experiments address limitations and alternatives raised by earlier studies. Reporting is reduced by presenting goal moderation as a demonstrated conclusion when the studies manipulate context and thought content rather than goals.
“the causal effect of these thoughts on self-esteem and subsequent motivation is still unclear”
The paper engages attribution theory, the Reflection Evaluation Model, counterfactual-thinking research, and self-handicapping accounts, including alternatives tested in Study 5. Its limitations discussion connects unresolved mechanisms and boundary conditions to specific future tests.
“Future researchers should continue to examine this question however.”
Lower confidence on Contribution, Methodological Rigour — domain match limited.
Caveats4 of 4 checks
The reported statistics and sample counts are generally coherent, but two disclosed issues warrant attention without materially changing interpretation.
Consent and debriefing, including disclosure of standardized failure feedback, are described, but no ethics or institutional approval declaration is reported for the deception studies.
Flags: 0 declared / 5 total
74 of 81 checkable references verified
83 references in manuscript 2 are books, websites or datasets — counted, but not index-checkable
No retraction notice found in Retraction Watch.
Sources: Retraction Watch ✓
Low2.9
Relevance does not apply by design because the paper frames a basic psychological mechanism and does not identify a practitioner, organization, or operational decision context.
The findings characterize a mechanism under controlled conditions and include behavioral measures of practice, noise choice, and task performance. No intervention, field implementation, or deployment pathway is evaluated.
The mechanism is examined in United States and German student samples using classroom and laboratory tasks with multiple handicap operationalizations. Transfer beyond university students and ego-threatening academic performance settings remains untested.
The research directly connects counterfactual-thinking, attribution, and self-handicapping literatures and tests a previously theorized mechanism through five linked studies. It therefore provides a clear foundation for cumulative research despite limited practical readiness.
“The present studies sought to demonstrate that upward counterfactual thoughts can serve to excuse a poor performance”
Lower confidence on Readiness, Generalizability — domain match limited.
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